Professor Allen Lichtman of American University has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984.
Lichtman looks beyond polls and the daily news cycles. And he puts aside his personal views and ignores shifting demographics.
Instead, Professor Lichtman bases his prediction on a series of “true or false” questions which have always helped him pick the correct President. And based on these questions, Lichtman is certain: Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump will win the 2016 election!
The questions he asks perfectly explain just why Trump is able to win so many votes from Americans who typically don’t get involved in Presidential elections. Trump is expanding the Republican tent in ways that no other candidate could come close to doing. And, Obama’s 8 years of failures mean “doom” For Hillary Clinton:
Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
And with 7 weeks left in the 2016 presidential campaign, all signs point to a decisive Trump victory in November:
Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you’re out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys.
Key 1 is the party mandate — how well they did in the midterms. They got crushed.
Key number 3 is, the sitting president is not running.
Key number 7, no major policy change in Obama’s second term like the Affordable Care Act.
Key number 11, no major smashing foreign policy success.
And Key number 12, Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt.
One more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key. One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a “false” if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 percent of the vote or more. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats.
So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory.
This is a reminder that even though Trump is leading, the margin will be close. Hillary Clinton will use every underhanded and criminal tactic she’s learned in the past 40 years to steal this election. That’s why Trump supporters can’t take anything for granted.
But Trump is the frontrunner and is well on his way to winning the White House. Finally, America will have a real leader who loves America.
Do you agree with Professor Allan Lichtman’s prediction? Please leave us a comment (below) and tell us what you think.